
NBA free agency is very different from what it was a decade ago, as most star movement now happens by way of trade. Players are able to steer their way to a preferred destination via trade request (either privately or publicly), and few teams bother working to create significant cap space for free agency each offseason, opting instead to have movable contracts that give them flexibility to make trades, not signings.
As such, teams tend to use free agency to fill out their roster around their core pieces, although we do see the occasional splash signing still when a team happens to have a ton of cap space — Isaiah Hartenstein to the Thunder was among the biggest last summer. This year figures to follow that same formula, as many of the top potential free agents have player options and will focus their efforts on either working out an extension with their current team or finding a sign-and-trade.
Even so, plenty of teams will have to reshape their rotations this summer and some face difficult decisions regarding their own free agents. As teams adapt to the restrictions of the new collective bargaining agreement, apron considerations and future flexibility become an even bigger part of the free agency calculus, which we’ve already seen result in some surprising moves.
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Here, we’ll look at each team’s list of potential free agents, along with the toughest choices they’ll have to make regarding whether to keep certain players or let them walk.
Glossary: team option (TO), player option (PO), restricted free agent (RFA), early termination option (ETO)
The Hawks are one of a handful of teams entering this summer with new front office leadership, as their search for a new president of basketball operations is ongoing. The biggest decisions facing the new regime are on the trade front. Do they want to reset the timeline around a young core and move Trae Young? But at the same time, they do have some free agency choices to make regarding veterans acquired in trades last year like Caris LeVert and Larry Nance Jr.
The Celtics also face a fascinating summer after an early exit in the conference semifinals that saw Jayson Tatum suffer an Achilles injury that figures to keep him out all of next season. With second apron issues, a rising tax bill and new ownership taking over in a few years, there is a lot to consider for Brad Stevens this summer as they figure out how to retool to try and keep their window open. Most of the major choices are regarding whether to trade core players, but they also have two of their top three big men hitting free agency. Luke Kornet could be seen as a valuable rotation center around the league and might get an offer above what Boston is interested in paying him, while Al Horford, 39, has to decide if he wants to continue playing and for how much longer.
On the other end of the spectrum from the Celtics are the Nets, who are in the midst of a rebuild and seem focused on keeping their options open. They can renounce rights and decline options to clear a ton of money if they want (only $64 million guaranteed on the books) and sign outside free agents with an eye on trades later. They could re-sign a bunch of their guys on short-term deals to kick the can down the road and have options at the deadline. They could also trade one or more of their remaining top guys and further enter the tank race.
In terms of their own free agents, Cam Thomas is the most interesting decision for the Nets to make, as he’s a restricted free agent who has been productive as a scorer but his skillset (high-volume scorer) is not exactly coveted in today’s game.
Charlotte is likewise in the rebuilding phase, but does have more pieces in place than Brooklyn with LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. The Hornets’ main concern is trying to see what their squad looks like when healthy for a full season so they can make some real evaluations, but that’s not something they can do this summer. As for the offseason to-do list, the Hornets will probably look to re-sign Tre Mann as he comes off a back injury, but most of their focus will be on the draft and seeing if there’s interest in the veterans on their roster on the trade market.
The Bulls enter the offseason after another year as a play-in participant, and they have one major choice to make on their roster. After trading Alex Caruso to the Thunder for Josh Giddey, the expectation is for Chicago to reward his late season surge with a healthy contract most expect to clock in at well over $100 million. Whether that’s wise or not remains to be seen, but the Bulls seem intent on making him a part of their long-term core. From there, Nikola Vučević remains very available on the trade market, as Chicago looks to get younger but seems intent on not fully bottoming out.
The Cavs hoped they’d moved past summer drama after re-signing Donovan Mitchell last summer, hiring Kenny Atkinson as coach and seeing their core group thrive in the regular season to earn the East’s top seed. Unfortunately for Cleveland, another early playoff exit has brought back the same conversations about whether they need to make significant changes on the trade market. Adding to the stress is a rising tax bill and second apron restrictions, which could hurt their chances of retaining key free agents, most notably Ty Jerome.
The Mavericks’ first order of business this summer is drafting Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 pick. From there, the expectation is that they’ll work out a new long-term extension with Kyrie Irving, even as he recovers from his latest knee injury, as he holds a player option for next season. After that, they have to figure out their backup/stop-gap point guard situation. And while they could bring back Spencer Dinwiddie, that seems unlikely as they are connected to just about every available starter and high-level reserve on the trade and free agency market.
The good news for Nuggets fans is they don’t have any particularly high-profile free agents to lose this summer as has been the case the last two years with Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The bad news is this is a team already thin on depth that doesn’t have a lot of great pathways to remedy that situation. They’ll once again be hunting for minimum signings on the free agency market, but could explore bigger swings on the trade market if another team is interested in, say, Michael Porter Jr.
The Pistons made a considerable leap this season and now face one of the most challenging stages of team-building. Going from a lottery team to a playoff team is one thing, but making that stick as a perennial contender (and becoming a bigger threat) is even harder. The Pistons will have to decide which of their veteran free agents are vital to their success and worth re-signing, and who they should thank for their service and let walk in favor of making other moves. Reports early this summer indicate they want to add a stretch five and try to bring back Dennis Schröder and Malik Beasley, but they will have plenty of competition for both from other teams looking to bolster their backcourts.
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Everything in Golden State this summer revolves around what they do with Jonathan Kuminga in restricted free agency. The former top 10 pick showed progress this past year and had his best statistical season, but clearly is not someone coach Steve Kerr trusts come playoff time. We haven’t seen a big offer sheet handed out to an RFA in a few years (Deandre Ayton signed one with the Pacers that the Suns matched), but Kuminga will tell us just how dead the RFA market really is. He’s not a fit in Golden State but has the potential for someone to believe they can get the most out of him. I think a sign-and-trade offer is more likely than a straight offer sheet, but it’s possible someone gets him to put pen to paper to put some pressure on the Warriors.
The Rockets are expected to be major players on the trade market, but they do have some key free agent choices facing them as well. Fred VanVleet wants to stay in Houston, but the Rockets will make that decision for him as they hold a team option worth nearly $45 million for next year. Beyond the VanVleet option, Houston will have to fend off other suitors to bring back Steven Adams after he proved to be a vital piece for them in the playoffs and should have plenty of contenders calling about his services this summer.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers figure to try bringing back as much of their Finals roster as possible, but they will have to fend off other teams making overtures to Myles Turner. His loyalty despite being in trade rumors for years has been rewarded with the team’s success the last two years, but Indiana might not be able to just ask for the hometown discount to keep him in place. Their backup center during this run, Thomas Bryant, is also a free agent and after his playoff performance for the Pacers, he will probably command more than the minimum.
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The Clippers are among the teams awaiting a player option decision from their star, as James Harden has an option worth just over $36 million. The expectation is they keep him around on a new long-term deal, but the question is for how long and at what price tag. From there, Nicolas Batum also has a player option and they’ll need to decide whether their Ben Simmons experiment was successful enough to want to bring him back next year.
The Lakers await word from LeBron James on his plans for the future, but all signs point to him coming back — either on the player option for one more year or looking to sign another 1+1 type deal. Once they have LeBron’s answer, they can begin working on trading for the starting center they desperately need and failed to add at the deadline after trading away Anthony Davis. While James’ PO decision is the focal point, Dorian Finney-Smith also has an option for next year and could add some stress for Rob Pelinka if he declines and hits the open market where he’d have plenty of suitors among the league’s contenders.
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Will we see a major shakeup in Memphis? After firing Taylor Jenkins near the end of the regular season, the Grizzlies got swept in the first round by the Oklahoma City Thunder and now have to at least question if they have constructed the right core group to contend in the West. From a free agency standpoint, the most notable decisions Memphis’ front office has to make are regarding Luke Kennard and then Santi Aldama‘s restricted free agency.
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The Heat need to plot a new course for the future after trading Jimmy Butler, but won’t have a ton of options to do so in free agency. After his performance late in the season and postseason, it’d be shocking if they don’t re-sign Davion Mitchell as their top RFA. There’s also no world Duncan Robinson uses his early termination option to hit free agency, so he’ll be back and part of every trade machine package Heat fans create. From there, it’s all about what Pat Riley can do to retool one more time, as he isn’t going to be comfortable with a long rebuilding process.
The Bucks will be the most fascinating team in the NBA this summer due to Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s looming decision whether to request a trade or stay in Milwaukee. If he asks out, we could see an all-time bidding war for a perennial MVP candidate’s services. If he stays, the Bucks have to figure out how to build a contender around him once again, with an added degree of difficulty with Damian Lillard likely out for all of next season with a torn Achilles. Giannis’ potential trade request will determine how they approach their pending free agents, but most of their top depth beyond Antetokounmpo, Lillard and Kyle Kuzma can hit free agency this summer if they want.
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After another conference finals loss, the Timberwolves likewise have some big choices to make. They could try to re-sign all their main guys and run it back one more time, but that requires paying a hefty tax bill and potentially running into the second apron. Julius Randle‘s performance this postseason seemingly locked up his return to Minnesota on a new deal, but that will make it more difficult to retain some key pieces of depth. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid, if he declines his option, will draw plenty of interest from other teams who could offer them more money than what Minnesota is willing to.
The Pelicans have a new front office led by Joe Dumars and will be looking to bounce back from a disastrous season filled with injury issues. Beyond hoping for health, the Pelicans need to figure out their team-building strategy now that they’ve traded away Brandon Ingram — with Zion Williamson‘s entire situation from health to off-court issues complicating matters. In free agency, their biggest free agent is Bruce Brown, who is expected to leave for a contender. But they could turn him into something in return by way of a sign-and-trade to facilitate that.
The Knicks are searching for a new coach but also will have some work to do on their bench this summer. Delon Wright, Cameron Payne and Landry Shamet all played at various points in their run to the conference finals, but the Knicks will need to decide who they want back and where they want to try and add different skillsets. Barring a surprise trade — which they pulled off twice last offseason — they’ll be working with minimums and exceptions to make those additions.
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Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder can run it back in totality if they want next year, as they control the options on both of their main roster free agents this summer. The question is whether general manager Sam Presti feels this team needs a larger upgrade via a trade or not. But after they made their big move last summer signing Hartenstein, they will be much quieter in free agency this July.
Like the Thunder, Orlando controls team options on all of its main roster free agents. Unlike the Thunder, the Magic aren’t coming off a Finals appearance. Orlando’s task this summer is to get more dynamic on the offensive side of the floor after struggling to score enough against Boston in a first round slugfest. Big changes would require trades, but they could decline an option or two to create some roster openings.
Everything for the Sixers starts with the health of Joel Embiid, but they also need to put a better roster around their stars so they can hopefully contend if their top three of Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George are healthy and playing well. I don’t think many anticipated one of their biggest internal free agent decisions being Guerschon Yabusele, but he was a rare bright spot last season and probably won’t be available for just the minimum again this year. Quentin Grimes also shined late in the season and is a restricted free agent, giving Philly the rights to match any offer on him. Daryl Morey has his work cut out for him this offseason, and the Sixers could turn over a good bit of their bench this summer if they want to.
Phoenix Suns
Speaking of disasters, the Phoenix Suns are right behind the Bucks in terms of offseason intrigue. They have a new GM and coach, and owner Mat Ishbia promises to be more involved in decision-making. That always works well, and the first order of business is finding a Kevin Durant trade that everyone knows is coming. From there, they have a handful of veteran free agents to either re-sign or let walk, headlined by Tyus Jones, and then they must figure out how to put together a more coherent roster than last year without any cap space.
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The Blazers are in a weird spot as a rebuilding team that hasn’t quite figured out who their main core guys should be. That makes it hard to know exactly what they’ll do this summer. While they have a handful of free agent decisions to make, their main focus has to be on creating some roster clarity as they have some logjams at different positions between veterans and young players.
The Kings aren’t a team most are focused on this summer, but they have some fascinating decisions to make. After firing coach Mike Brown, trading De’Aaron Fox away at the deadline and firing GM Monte McNair after a Play-In loss, the Kings are headed in a new direction once again. The question is what moves will a new regime look to make and how will they navigate building a team around Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine. And how does DeMar DeRozan fit into that picture? They have a number of players from their bench unit hitting free agency, including a of couple team options to decide on. Sacramento could look to shuffle the deck a bit going into next year.
The biggest decision the Spurs will make this summer is in the Draft, as they have the No. 2 pick but the roster fit for the consensus No. 2 prospect, guard Dylan Harper, isn’t the cleanest. Beyond that, they’ll be looking to fill out their depth around Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell and company as they target a leap into playoff contention in the West next season. Chris Paul is their biggest free agent this offseason, and if they draft Harper it would stand to reason that they won’t have the kind of opportunity for minutes in the backcourt the 40-year-old Paul would prefer.
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The Raptors have just two free agents this summer and will be thinking about how to build a playoff contender after trading for Brandon Ingram at the deadline in February. Chris Boucher is the biggest potential departure from the team, as he’s become a solid stretch big for them off the bench. Whether they keep Boucher or not could come down to how significant his market ends up being, but the Canadian might opt for the comfort of Toronto and a place he’s grown to find success.
The Jazz will be largely focused on the draft this summer, as they only have one potential free agent in John Collins. The veteran forward has a $26.5 million player option for next year and will need to decide whether he wants to pick that up (and likely become a trade chip at the deadline for Utah) or hit the free agency market this summer. Even if he declines his option, the Jazz could still be involved in a sign-and-trade given how little cap space is available this summer.
The Wizards are firmly in the rebuilding category as well, and have a pair of veterans hitting the free agent market this summer. Malcolm Brogdon figures to have a market for teams looking for a veteran backup point guard and figures to leave, while Khris Middleton is a far more fascinating case with his $34 million player option for this coming season. While we see most players decline options to seek out a bigger deal, Middleton’s injury history could cause him pick it up and look to build a market for the trade deadline and/or next summer in Washington.