The one pick you can already write in permanent ink. Dallas lands its foundational piece after blowing it up midseason after dealing Luka Doncic to the Lakers.
It’s possible San Antonio uses this pick as trade bait, but also possible: San Antonio sticks at No. 2 and picks the clear No. 2 prospect in the class despite potential fit questions around Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox. Increasingly, this seems like a situation where you select the best talent and figure out fit later.
I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Philly considers other players here such as VJ Edgecombe, Tre Johnson or Kon Knueppel. But most view the draft dropping off in talent *after* Bailey — even if his prospect profile is a bit more volatile than others. He’s a big wing and talented shot-maker with tremendous size and athleticism.
With LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller in place, Charlotte adds a two-way guard who can make shots at a respectable clip and give the Hornets an athletic downhill driving threat. Most importantly he gives this team a complementary weapon to fit neatly around the team’s top stars.
Johnson led freshmen in Division I last season in scoring and made more 3-pointers than any player in his class to boot. He’s a bucket-getter who has opened eyes not just with his versatility as a scorer, but with his rounded skill set as a playmaker, too.
Fears is arguably the biggest boom-or-bust proposition in this draft with flashes of stardom in his one season at Oklahoma mixed in with some worrying red flags tough to overlook. He’ll need to develop his shot to be a threat at the next level and cut out errant passes that were too frequently a feature of his game.
New Orleans snags the Robin to Cooper Flagg’s Batman in Knueppel, who is the most skilled shooter in the draft after hitting 40.6% on 3-pointers last season at Duke and rating out in the 90th percentile or better on both jump shots and catch-and-shoot attempts. He was very good playing next to a star in Flagg and there’s more room for him to expand his game in a bigger role.
With a hard reset likely incoming for Brooklyn, I like the idea of the Nets refreshing their backcourt around Jakucionis — a lead guard with great size and shooting potential.
A former soccer obsessive who only began playing basketball as a teenager after a massive growth spurt, Maluach’s 7-2 frame and 7-6 wingspan make him an enticing bet for a Raptors team that is positioned to begin pushing its chips to the table. He’d make for a nice, and hard to miss, lob threat in Toronto for Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley.
Defense, defense, defense. Houston’s already got a strong unit on that end and an investment in CMB is a doubling down of what has worked already with the Rockets. He’d give this team an identity in the frontcourt and could fit well alongside Alperen Sengun down low.
A potential shakeup for Portland’s backcourt may give its brass reason to invest in a playmaker of Demin’s caliber at No. 11. He has tremendous passing ability, though limitations with his defense and struggles with his shooting consistency has his range anywhere between mid-lottery to the 20s.
Chicago adding youth and size to its young roster makes Queen a perfect match of fit and need at No. 12. He has tremendous skill and feel for a big man whose passing and playmaking could open up opportunities to be an offensive hub in the NBA.
Richardson has a wide draft range because of an underwhelming height measurement at the NBA Draft Combine but it wouldn’t surprise if he still snuck into the lottery. He plays bigger than his measurements with a silky scoring game and long reach on the defensive end to impact winning at a high level.
It’d be hard to find a better fit for the Spurs at No. 14 than McNeeley. He’s a competitive wing who plays a selfless style and has the makings of a glue guy to help in San Antonio.
Washington State
• Sr
• 6’5″
/ 213 lbs
PPG
17.7
RPG
7
APG
3.7
3P%
40%
A late-riser whose steam over the last month has pushed him firmly into the lottery conversation, Coward and his versatility as a multipositional wing with athleticism and scoring fits the archetype that’d make perfect sense for a contender like OKC.
Clifford is a true two-way stud who can be a weapon on offense and add length defensively. He’s ready to contribute early for virtually any team with his skill set.
Bryant was merely a bit player in his one season at Arizona but his big frame and promise as a two-way wing who can defend and shoot make him a potential lottery pick in this year’s class.
Washington adds more size to its frontcourt for a second consecutive draft with a complementary weapon to pair with Alex Sarr. Wolf has the tools of a point guard inside a 7-foot frame, and his playmaking would help elevate the young and fun pieces already in place in Washington.
Brooklyn adds a lob-finishing shot-blocker at No. 19 to add next to top-10 pick Kasparas Jakucionis. Newell is an athletic above-the-rim big who showed promise as a floor spacer in his one season at Georgia.
Love the idea of Miami adding playmaking to its roster and love the idea, specifically, of Traore with the Heat. He’s crafty with the ball in his hands and his decision-making could help Tyler Herro play more comfortably off the ball.
Essengue is a French prospect with great positional size. As the second-youngest player available in this class, he’s a long-term bet with defensive tools and shooting upside to grow into a potential steal in the coming years — a luxury only a team like Utah can afford to be patient seeing through.
This is a bit lower than where Sorber could wind up on draft night, with buzz that he could land late in the lottery, perhaps with Atlanta. That’d make landing him at No. 22 a steal for the Hawks.
Beringer is a frontcourt prospect with a 7-4 wingspan who provides defensive versatility and the ability to rim-protect. Is he ready to contribute in the NBA next season? Probably not. But there’s a lot to like with this 18 year old, and the Pacers’ window doesn’t appear to be closing soon as Tyrese Haliburton hits his prime.
Creighton
• Sr
• 7’1″
/ 257 lbs
PPG
19.2
RPG
8.7
APG
1.5
3P%
34.4%
There is a lot of potential value in this range for big men prospects and Kalkbrenner’s fit in OKC could be tough to pass on at No. 24. He’s a four-time DPOY winner in the Big East who improved every season in college and is ready to contribute right away in the NBA.
Opinions vary among evaluators on Clayton and his NBA prospects but all agree on one thing: he can be a scorer at the NBA level. I like the idea of Orlando keeping him in Florida and asking him to be a sparkplug for its offense, which rated 14th among 16 playoff teams this postseason.
Saraf is an Israeli guard who has acquitted himself well overseas as a scorer and playmaker at just 18 years old this season, and he’s crafty in using his smarts to find open teammates. Brooklyn has four first-round picks in this draft and could use Saraf and Jakucionis to change the trajectory for the better of its backcourt.
Gonzalez hasn’t played or produced much for Real Madrid this season, which is mostly the byproduct of being a 19 year old on a first-place team in a legitimate professional league. But the athleticism and high-motor that’s made him an intriguing prospect for years still exists and will likely be enough to get Gonzalez selected in the first round.
A French prospect putting together a strong season with Le Mans, Penda checks several boxes as a long forward who can score inside and out and match up well physically defending multiple positions. He could give Boston some long-term flexibility as it enters a potential transition year next season.
Raynuad quietly flourished on a floundering Stanford team last season as one of the best players in all of college basketball. The center has remarkable movement skills for his size and can not only space the floor with his shot, but can put the ball on the deck and create. A rare skill for a player his size.
Penn State
• Jr
• 6’11”
/ 243 lbs
PPG
12.9
RPG
6.3
APG
0.8
BPG
2.3
No veteran college big man had a stronger May than Niederhauser, culminating with a strong showing at the Combine. He blocked 2.3 shots per game at Penn State last season and looks the part of a late-blooming center who can provide real impact at the center position.