Five best NBA player props, odds for Wednesday, April 9: Luka Doncic, Josh Giddey, Alex Sarr picks, bets

The Denver Nuggets shocked the sports world on Tuesday when they announced the firing of head coach Michael Malone with three games left in the regular season and in a four-way tie for the fourth-best record in the Western Conference. The Nuggets have lost four straight games, so will the firing of the coach who guided them to a NBA Championship two seasons ago spark a strong conclusion to the regular season and run through the 2025 NBA playoffs? The Nuggets (-3.5) play the Kings on Wednesday in the first game since Malone’s firing. Nikola Jokic is always a popular selection in NBA player props as the 30-year-old center is averaging a triple-double this season. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the best odds at -105 for Jokic to record a triple-double.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.

Luka Doncic Over 0.5 blocks (+185)

There are revenge games and then there are revenge games. Doncic plays his first game in Dallas since the shocking trade that sent him to the Lakers and the sportsbooks are plenty aware of that with his points and player combination numbers skyrocketing compared to a typical game. However, especially given the narrative around Doncic’s playing shape, he’ll likely be just as motivated to prove himself defensively as offensively on Wednesday.

“He actually has had a block in 10 of 21 road games this season and comes in with a block in six of his last 12, so this is looking like a coin flip bet at big plus-money,” Oh said. The model sees value outside of just a narrative, giving Doncic a 45% chance at a block while the +185 odds on Bet365 imply a 35% chance.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+160)

The Magic guard is averaging 1.8 steals + blocks per game this season and he’s gone Over this number in three straight games and four of his last five contests. Caldwell-Pope had three steals over 33 minutes against the Hawks on Tuesday as he’s played more than 30 minutes in four straight games. The Magic host the Celtics, who are playing the second half of a back-to-back after an overtime victory over the Knicks on Tuesday, as Boston could rest key players, leading to more opportunities for Caldwell-Pope to make defensive plays.

“While his Over 1.5 is just 16-20 on the road, it is a very strong 24-15, (61.5%) at home this season and he comes in with a five-game Over streak,” Oh said. “But we are still getting buy-low value from his 8-1 Under stretch from March 8 to March 27.” Bet365 has the best odds at +160.

Josh Giddey Over 0.5 blocks (+145)

Home games against the Miami Heat have led to profitable total blocks player props this season and Oh and the model project Giddey to be the next benefactor of this. Oh notes the Heat get blocked 25% more on the road than at home. Oh knows Giddey has gone four straight games without a block, but this is his longest stretch without a block since his first 10 games with the Bulls. Oh expects that to change on Wednesday.

“These odds imply just a 41% chance he has a block, which is under the 50% we give him and the 54% (19-16) he has had at home this season on a healthy 0.7 average,” Oh said. “We are getting buy-low value on his four straight games without a block so he’s definitely due.” Bet365 is offering this play at +145 odds.

Alex Sarr Over 9.5 rebounds + assists (-115)

Khris Middleton (knee) has been out since the end of March for the Wizards and Oh expects that to be the case again, which will continue to boost Sarr’s minutes. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft is averaging 6.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists for a 10.3 rebounds + assists total over four April games without Middleton. Sarr is coming off one of his best NBA games yet with 20 points, 12 rebounds and six assists over 32 against the Pacers on Tuesday and Oh likes that success to carry into Wednesday against the 76ers.

“This is a good matchup vs. Philadelphia to rack up these stats,” Oh said. “The 76ers have been outrebounded by 12, 19, 20, 17 in four of their last five games while allowing 44, 52, 39, 45, and 47% from three to opponents.” BetMGM is offering this at -115 odds.

Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 assists (-115)

When many think about two of the NBA’s elite going head-to-head and trying to go tit-for-tat with one another, it’s two playmaking guards trading off electrifying moves or long-range 3-pointers. But Sabonis and Jokic are two big men who play like guards and the two triple-double threats often like to showcase their versatility against one another. Oh expects that to be the case again on Wednesday from the Kings power forward in a matchup against Denver.

“I think he’ll want to show that Jokic isn’t the only center capable of major assist numbers,” Oh said. “This has been the case when you see he is averaging 7.5 assists in his last six games vs. Denver (5-1 Over this line). He is projected for Over 7.5 and is coming off a four straight Over stretch.” The majority of sportsbooks have this play at even money, but DraftKings Sportsbook is pricing this at +110 odds if you act quickly.