The Indiana Pacers will have another opportunity to close out the Eastern Conference finals when they host the New York Knicks in Game 6 on Saturday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. New York kept its season alive with a 111-94 win in Game 5, easily covering the spread as a 4.5-point favorite. The Pacers are 4-point favorites in Game 6 with an over/under of 221.5, and SportsLine’s model is projecting value on Indiana to cover the spread at betting sites. Saturday’s game is set to begin at 8 p.m. ET.
Pascal Siakam is averaging a team-high 20.4 points per game for Indiana in the postseason, and he scored 30 points at home in Game 4. The model is including Siakam in its Pacers vs. Knicks same-game parlay plays for online sports betting, backing him to go Over 9.5 rebounds plus assists. You can also check out our Knicks vs. Pacers props for Game 6. If you want to pick the game, the latest FanDuel promo code gives users $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh is the expert behind the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model is 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Here are the model’s top-three picks in the Pacers vs. Knicks SGP on Saturday:
- Indiana -4 (-114)
- Under 221.5 (-110)
- Pascal Siakam Over 9.5 rebounds + assists (-125)
- SGP pays out +443 at FanDuel (odds subject to change)
Indiana -4 (-114)
The Pacers are coming off their worst performance of the series, but they will be playing in front of a raucous crowd on Saturday night. Going back to Madison Square Garden would be a tall task, so they will do everything they can to close out the series in Game 6. They are 16-4 in their last 20 home games and have covered the spread in five of their last seven games. Star guard Tyrese Haliburton had a quiet showing in Game 5, but he had 32 points, 15 assists and 12 rebounds in a historic performance at home in Game 4. The model has Indiana covering the spread in well over 50% of simulations, making it the first leg of the same-game parlay.
Under 221.5 (-110)
The Under has hit in three of the past four matchups in this series, and while the model had a lean to the Over initially, the three points of upward line movement have now made the Under the better play. These teams combined for just 205 points in Game 5, falling well short of the posted total of 223 in that matchup. The model is projecting 220 combined points in this one, helping the Under clear with 1.5 points to spare.
Pascal Siakam Over 9.5 rebounds + assists (-125)
Siakam has cleared this combination at a 54-39 rate this season, averaging 10.1 rebounds + assists per game. He is going to take on a heavy minutes workload on Saturday, as the Pacers will view this as a must-win game. Siakam is one of Indiana’s key offensive isolation players, so help defense will give him assist opportunities. He had five assists on Thursday, despite Indiana’s poor offensive showing. The model has him finishing with 7.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists to provide clear value on the Over 9.5 combination.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s top NBA playoff best bets for Saturday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Mike Barner, who’s on a sizzling 228-166-2 (+3514) roll on his last 396 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 35 units.
Finally, SportsLine expert Jason La Canfora, who is 107-80-1 (+1785.5) over his last 188 NBA picks, has an NBA pick locked in for Saturday. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from an expert who’s up nearly 18 units.
