The return of World No. 1 Jannik Sinner to a hero’s welcome at his home tournament in Rome this month heightened the excitement for this season’s second Grand Slam and its only Major on clay.

This is only the second French Open without the retired Rafael Nadal since the King of Clay took his first crown there in 2005, and intriguing questions abound. How much will Sinner’s three-month absence from competition affect his match toughness — especially his shot selection and ability to win big points?

Even though Sinner was inadvertently contaminated when his physiotherapist used a banned substance (the steroid Clostebol) on his own hand before subsequently treating the Italian with it, will other players still regard him with the same respect and cordiality? Which players have improved most since the 23-year-old Italian captured the Australian Open for his third Grand Slam title in January?

Will Carlos Alcaraz, if he defends his title, begin to be compared to the incomparable Nadal, whose 14 Roland Garros crowns ranks as one of the most unbreakable records in tennis? And if Sinner wins his first Major on clay — historically his weakest surface — could he go on to triumph at Wimbledon and the US Open to achieve the rare feat of a calendar Grand Slam, last accomplished by a man in 1969?

Let’s size up the field and identify the leading contenders, the dark horses, and the likely champion:-

Men’s Singles

No. 1 Jannik Sinner

When asked by  La Gazzetta dello Sport what to expect from Sinner’s return at the Italian Open, his close friend and compatriot Lorenzo Sonego replied, “An even stronger champion.” That’s bad news for the rest of the field — Sinner was already on a 21-match winning streak.

“He has a crazy desire to compete,” added Sonego. “He can’t wait to get back to what he loves — to feel the adrenaline of a match. He’s very competitive.” Although Sinner has won the last three Majors on hard courts, he’s only reached the Roland Garros semifinals once — losing in five sets to eventual champion Alcaraz last year.

Despite taking the longest break of his career, Sinner impressed in early rounds of the Italian Open, beating an in-form Francisco Cerundolo 7-6(2), 6-3. He then overwhelmed Casper Ruud 6-0, 6-1, winning 55 of the 77 points with a display of awesome power. “It’s as near as perfect that I witnessed,” Ruud said. “It’s just immensely impressive. … It was like playing a wall that shoots 100 mph balls at you all the time.” Although he stumbled in the final against Alcaraz, it would be unwise to dismiss the possibility of a first French Open title for the Italian.

READ | Men’s draw: Djokovic, Sinner in same half; Alcaraz faces Nishikori in opener

Performing with an icy calm similar to that of Bjorn Borg, Sinner thrives on big games and points. He leads the ATP’s Under Pressure Ratings at 259.5, and has won 80.6 per cent of his tie-breaks. He also ranks No. 4 in service and No. 5 in return statistics. “The beauty of Sinner is that he hits with both depth and pace,” said  Tennis Channel analyst Jimmy Arias. Those attributes — plus his vastly improved defence — should propel him into the final. It will take a performance of the highest calibre to stop him.

No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz

In theory, clay should pose challenges for the outrageously talented but occasionally erratic Alcaraz. It’s the slowest surface and demands relentless consistency. In practice, however, this super athlete defies logical thinking. As Arias noted, “He wants to entertain the crowd, and it’s sometimes to his own detriment.” However, the Spanish phenom showed no signs of trouble in his final victory over Sinner at Indian Wells — 7-6(5), 6-1 — extending his head-to-head record against his arch-rival.

A year ago, Alcaraz came from two sets to one down to outlast Sinner in a hard-fought French Open semifinal thriller, 2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, between the two wounded warriors. Alcaraz had a forearm injury that required him to wear a long sleeve, and Sinner had a lingering hip injury. After splitting the first two hard-hitting sets, both players suffered cramps in the third: Alcaraz in his right hand, and Sinner in his right forearm and left thigh. Alcaraz echoed the sentiments of Nadal, “You have to enjoy the suffering.”

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Like Sinner, he excels when it matters most. An exception was the Paris Olympics, where Novak Djokovic edged him for the coveted gold. Still, Alcaraz has a stunning 10–1 record in Grand Slam and Masters 1000 finals. Crucially, he’s beaten Sinner in their last three duels, all of them last year.

Sinner’s absence from competition should make him the fresher of the two, in case they meet again. But Alcaraz must have his fervent fans worried after this revelation on his new  Netflix documentary: “Right now, my biggest fear is ending up seeing tennis as an obligation. Sometimes I feel enslaved to tennis — and that causes anxiety, frustration, doubts. I ask myself, do I really want this life, with that pressure, and to keep going?” I personally think his passion for competing and showing off his dazzling repertoire will offset his fears, and he’ll add a second Eiffel Tower tattoo to his sculpted body.

No. 5 Jack Draper

“Pressure is a privilege,” tennis legend Billie Jean King likes to say. But for Jack Draper — this season’s breakout British player — pressure has become an exhausting burden barely five months into the year.

“When I get out of bed, I feel so angry some days. And, you know, I’ve got to play a tennis match and lose points, so I’ve got to go through those emotional ups and downs,” Draper told  Sky Sports’ Gigi Salmon. “I’m in a new position now. My ranking’s going up, and I’m competing week in, week out, playing lots of matches. That’s taken some getting used to — mentally and physically. I want to keep going, but yeah, it’s sometimes difficult to always be perfect.”

Even so, the 23-year-old British left-hander was runner-up at Doha, and upset Alcaraz and World No. 4 Taylor Fritz to win his first Masters 1000 at Indian Wells. The ruggedly built 6’4”, 190-pound Draper also excels on clay. He made the Madrid final, overpowering Tommy Paul and Lorenzo Musetti before falling to the more experienced Ruud in an exciting 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 contest.

“I think he has very few, if any, weaknesses,” Ruud said. “He’s big, strong, and moves well. He can defend brilliantly and also play aggressively…. You’re scared of his forehand because he rips it cross-court and down the line. And you’re scared of his backhand because he can rip and counter from that side too…. He’s definitely got an incredible future on any surface.”

Injury-prone Draper, who works with a breathing coach to manage stress, will be tested physically and mentally like never before in the long, gruelling matches at Roland Garros. Since Draper is in Sinner’s quarter, a quarterfinal appearance is likely his ceiling this year.

No. 7 Casper Ruud

The greatest player in Norwegian tennis history has had the misfortune of facing two of the Big Three and a rising superstar in his three Grand Slam finals — Nadal, his boyhood idol, at the 2022 French Open, Djokovic at the 2023 French Open, and Alcaraz at the 2022 US Open. After achieving a career-high No. 2 ranking in September 2022, Ruud plunged to No. 15 in April this year. He endured a lacklustre season, failing to beat any top 15 opponent until his resounding resurgence in Madrid, where he defeated Fritz, Daniil Medvedev, Cerundolo, and Draper.

How does the mild-mannered Ruud, now back up to No. 7, cope with the ups and downs in the sport? In an interview with  Tennis Channel before the Italian Open, he shared: “When you talk to someone — a psychologist, psychiatrist, or whoever — it helps. It’s like personal training for your brain. You get personal training in the gym to work on your glutes or arms; I think talking to someone in this aspect is like personal training for your feelings.”

“With tennis, there is so much focus on what’s happening on court,” explained the 26-year-old, “whether you could have played your forehand or backhand better.” Ruud elaborated, “It’s also a very mental game, which can make it frustrating many times. I think the whole lifestyle of it all, with the travel we do and the day in, day out. There’s not much rest.” With renewed mental strength and a punishing clay-court game — particularly his vicious topspin forehand — it may take one of the Big Two to stop him.

No. 6 Novak Djokovic

The last of the legendary Big Three, Djokovic has astounded the tennis world by defying Father Time, just as Nadal and Roger Federer once did. But the GOAT turned 38 on May 22, and injuries, poor form, a severe lack of match play, along with waning motivation might prevent him from extending his men’s record of 24 Grand Slam singles titles.

The Djoker last showcased his sustained brilliance at the Paris Olympics, where he seized the only prestigious title that had previously eluded him. He won every match in straight sets, outplaying Stefanos Tsitsipas, Musetti, and defeated Alcaraz (7-6, 7-6) in the gold medal match. In retrospect, the 2025 Australian Open may have been his last hurrah. There, he stopped Alcaraz 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 — but it was a Pyrrhic victory as he tore his left hamstring and had to retire in the semifinal against Alexander Zverev.

As the European clay season began, former World No. 1 Andy Roddick, now a  Tennis Channel analyst, remarked, “Is he what he was three years or 10 years ago? No. But who gives a s*#@! This guy is surviving. This guy can still win a Major.” That confidence wasn’t borne out, as Djokovic lost his third straight match — a 6-3, 6-4 debacle — to unheralded Matteo Arnaldi in Madrid. Not even former rival Andy Murray, who joined his coaching team for six months before they split on May 13, could help arrest the slide. “Trying to win a match or two, not really thinking about getting far in the tournament… It’s a completely different feeling from what I had in 20-plus years of professional tennis,” a humbled Djokovic acknowledged.

“But that’s the circle of life and of a career. Eventually, it was going to happen.” Almost conceding Roland Garros, Djokovic skipped the Italian Open and took a wild card to enter the ATP 250 event in Geneva (instead of Hamburg, an ATP 500 one). If he reaches the quarterfinals in Paris, it will be a modest victory of sorts — and one that could help restore confidence ahead of Wimbledon, a tournament he has won seven times.

The Best of the Rest

Jakub Mensik – The heavy-hitting 19-year-old Czech stunned Djokovic 7-6, 7-6 in the Miami Open final in March. His former mentor said, “I could already see back then, three years ago, that he’s going to be one of the top players in the world. I’m super glad that he’s using the potential that he has, because he’s got the complete game.” The rising star exudes confidence, telling  Tennis.com, “I’m from the Czech Republic. I’ve been playing my whole life on the clay courts. When I was a kid, I was practising seven-eight months during the year on clay. Clay is in my blood.”

Alexander Zverev – The 2021 Olympic gold medallist and two-time ATP Finals champion is still looking for that elusive first Grand Slam title. Sadly, he’s part of the ‘lost generation’ — when the Big Three reigned, and only two men (Medvedev and Dominic Thiem) born in the 1990s won a Major. The 6’6”, rocket-serving Zverev came very close in his five-set final loss to Thiem at the 2020 US Open. But the No. 2-ranked German was outclassed by Sinner in the 2025 Australian Open final. Sascha lacks the athleticism, versatility, and courage — he’s notoriously passive on the big points — to win a Major.

Francisco Cerundolo — Of the Argentine dirt-baller, former No. 1 Jim Courier said, “Cerundolo is such a happy, smiley man off the court, but on the court, he can bring the aggro.” He also brings a lethal, 100-mph forehand that helped him whip Zverev at Buenos Aires, (Alex) De Minaur at Indian Wells, Ruud and Paul at Miami, and Zverev and Mensik at Madrid. Cerundolo generates great power with less effort because of his extremely head-heavy (380 swing weight) and longer (27.5”) racket.

Dark Horses — Lorenzo Musetti, Joao Fonseca, Arthur Fils, and Tommy Paul.

Women’s Singles

In the post-Serena Williams era, several female players have jockeyed to fill that massive void: Naomi Osaka, Ashleigh Barty, Iga Swiatek, and, currently, Aryna Sabalenka. Swiatek has captured the most Grand Slam titles — five. With a ferocious topspin forehand, blazing foot speed, and relentless intensity, she’s dominated one tournament and one surface more than her rivals, winning four Roland Garros titles and six others on clay.

A year ago, before Swiatek trounced surprise finalist Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 6-1 in the final,  NBC analyst John McEnroe said, “She’s fast becoming the Rafa Nadal on this surface,” referencing the 14-time Roland Garros champion. After the final, all-time great Chris Evert, who racked up seven French titles, predicted, “She is the best clay court player, bar none. I have no doubt she’ll break my record.”

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No tennis expert could have foreseen Swiatek’s sudden fall from the pinnacle of the sport at age 23 — especially her unexpected decline on clay. It started with her stunning semifinal loss to Zheng Qinwen at the Paris Olympics. Swiatek hasn’t even reached a final in her last 14 tournaments across all surfaces.

This shocking reversal of fortunes leaves the French Open wide open, with no clear favourite.

Here are my five top contenders, the dark horses, and the predicted champion:-

No. 3 Coco Gauff

Since she upset Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open final as a 19-year-old phenom, Gauff has been hot and cold. Feeling the pressure to become The Next Great American Player, she sometimes struggles in matches but always competes hard.

Named in  TIME magazine’s 2024 Women of the Year list — which honours “extraordinary leaders working toward a more equal world” — Gauff had an ordinary year by her high standards. The fleet Floridian failed to make a Grand Slam final or medal at the Paris Olympics, but salvaged the season by capturing the 2024 WTA Finals with impressive wins over No. 1 Sabalenka, No. 2 Swiatek, No. 6 Pegula, No. 7 Zheng, and No. 8 Barbora Krejcikova.

Gauff ’s coach, Matt Daly, has tweaked her forehand and serve grips to solidify these strokes so she can confidently attack with fewer errors. “Her forehand looked as good as it’s ever looked,” praised Courier when Gauff thrashed Swiatek 6-1, 6-1 in the Madrid Open semis — the Pole’s worst loss on clay in six years. Gauff has now won three straight matches in their rivalry after losing 10 of their first 11.

Gauff can easily make the semis or final — but beating Sabalenka is a bridge too far.

No. 2 Iga Swiatek

What’s wrong with Swiatek? A coaching change from Tomasz Wiktorowski to the highly regarded Wim Fissette hasn’t diversified her inflexible, one-dimensional game. Her most alarming match stat is second serve points won. In 2024, she led the WTA Tour with 55 per cent, but in her 6-1, 6-1 debacle against Gauff in Madrid, it was only 40 per cent. Even worse, during her 6-1, 7-5 Italian Open third-round loss to Danielle Collins, Swiatek won just 22 per cent of her second serve points. Power players attack her second serve with increasing success and dictate rallies thereafter. She has also produced more double faults (91) than aces (83) this season.

“I think the biggest thing is between her ears. At that level, I really think the mental aspects lead the physical most of the time,” said Paul Annacone, who coached superstar Pete Sampras, on the  Inside-In Tennis Podcast. “She seems a bit on edge. She is a type A personality, where she is a little intense all the time, which looks great when you are winning… but if you are a little negative… it is tough to calm yourself down and get back into a cool, composed, confident process.”

Swiatek will eventually recover from this slump — but it won’t happen at Roland Garros. I believe the Queen of Clay will alas be dethroned there.

No. 18 Jelena Ostapenko

The Latvian slugger shocked everyone by winning Roland Garros eight years ago as a 100-1 long shot, becoming the first unseeded woman to capture a Major since 1933. She has more than a puncher’s chance again. As per the draw, she could be up against Swiatek in the fourth round.

She has Swiatek’s number as perhaps no other non-star has ever had a champion’s before: she has knocked her off all six times they’ve played, most recently on clay in the Stuttgart quarterfinals, 6-3, 3-6, 6-2.

On a given day, the go-for-broke Ostapenko can not only beat but crush anyone, as she proved by overpowering Sabalenka 6-4, 6-1 in the final. It was no fluke. At Doha in February, she knocked off Swiatek, three-time Major finalist Ons Jabeur, and 2024 breakout star Paolini, losing just four games in each match. The feast-or-famine ‘Penko’ has also lost nine times in the first or second round this season.

On the pudgy side, she has a fitness coach but, oddly, no traditional coach. “No matter who coaches Jelena, she’s always her own coach,” said  Tennis Channel analyst CoCo Vandeweghe.

Contrasting herself now with the 20-year-old who conquered Roland Garros, Ostapenko said, “At that time I was probably fearless, but I didn’t have that much experience. I think honestly now I’m a better player — mentally as well. Getting a bit older and more mature is going to help me.” Ostapenko won’t win another French Open, but getting to the semifinals, where she may face Sabalenka, won’t surprise anyone.

No. 7 Mirra Andreeva

Mirror, mirror on the wall, is Mirra the greatest of them all? She may well be before the decade is over, but the 18-year-old Russian still has a thing or two to learn to beat the elite at Roland Garros.

Although she says her favourite surface is clay, her best results this year have come on hard courts. The clever tactician, with a serve topping 120 mph, conquered Dubai with wins over Swiatek and Elena Rybakina, and then grabbed her biggest title at Indian Wells, after defeating Sabalenka, Swiatek, Elina Svitolina, and Rybakina.

“She has no weaknesses and has really good technique,” raved all-time great Martina Navratilova.

“She loves competing. She’s not scared. I love it. She’s like a sponge. She takes everything in. She brings notes to the court.”

Coached by canny Conchita Martinez, the delightfully witty prodigy should make the semifinals.

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka

Unlike Osaka, who won her four Grand Slam titles on hard courts but fared decidedly worse on clay and grass, Sabalenka — the reigning Queen of Hard Courts — boasts the athleticism, technique, and versatility to flourish on every surface. And, crucially, she believes that.

Marrying finesse to her serving, groundstroke power, and volleying skill, the 27-year-old Belarusian had won 23 of her last 27 matches (85 per cent) on clay going into the Italian Open.

“Sabalenka is an absolute frontrunner,” said former No. 9 Andrea Petkovic, now a  Tennis Channel analyst. “Once she gets rolling, it’s very hard to slow her down.”

No wonder she ranks No. 1 in both serving and returning statistics on the WTA Tour. And although she plays very few tiebreaks because she wins so many sets decisively, she holds a near-perfect 6-1 record in them.

Asked about her chances this season, Sabalenka said, “Physically I’m strong, and I’m not rushing the point, and I know I can stay in the point for however long I need. I think that’s the key, because I think I have everything to be a good player on clay.”

Sabalenka proved that in spades at Madrid, where she won her third title there, defeating Gauff 6-3, 7-6 in the final.

The most emotional champion since Serena, she’ll be ecstatic if she wins her first Grand Slam title on clay.

The Best of the Rest

Jasmine Paolini – “To dream is the most important thing in sports and in life,” said Paolini  after defeating Andreeva in the 2024 French Open semifinals. The smiling, late-blooming Italian’s dreams came true when she reached the French Open and Wimbledon finals and climbed to a career-high No. 4. At the start of 2025, Paolini said, “I think it’s impossible to repeat.”

She was right, notching only one top 10 win, over Gauff this season going into the Italian Open. But this 5’4” topspin dynamo proved she’s still a huge threat on clay in Rome, where she beat Ostapenko, Jabeur, Diana Shnaider, Peyton Stearns, and Gauff again (6-4, 6-2) to win her most prestigious title.

Zheng Qinwen also enjoyed a career year in 2024, winning Olympic gold and reaching the finals at both the Australian Open and the WTA Finals. By far the most successful Chinese player since two-time Major winner Li Na, Zheng is hard-hitting but often erratic. “I need to find the right balance on clay,” she told  Tennis Channel. “My first intention is to be as solid as I can, and if I get the chance, go for it.”

That formula worked at the Italian Open, where Zheng defeated Sabalenka for the first time in seven matches and advanced to the semifinals. If the 22-year-old finds the right shot selection balance, she has an outside chance to become a tennis queen during the Paris fortnight.

Clara Tauson, a former world No. 1 junior now 22, is the best Danish woman since Caroline Wozniacki. Her promising career was derailed by knee and back injuries, but the resurgent 6’0” power hitter whacks winners with stunning regularity — 581 in the first two months of 2025 — and led the Tour with 159 aces going into the Italian Open. Tauson defeated Madison Keys and Sofia Kenin to win the Auckland title, and Sabalenka (6-3, 6-2), Svitolina, and Karolina Muchova to make the Dubai final. “Tauson’s ball-striking is impeccable,” said Petkovic.

Dark Horses — Peyton Stearns, Victoria Mboko, Alexandra Eala, and Marta Kostyuk.