An air-tight Stanley Cup Final resumes Monday night when the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers collide in a crucial Game 3 at Amerant Bank Arena in South Florida. The best-of-seven series is tied 1-1 with both games going to overtime. In Game 1, the Oilers rallied for a 4-3 win in overtime. In Game 2, the Panthers responded with a 5-4 victory in double overtime. 

Three-time Hart Trophy winner Connor McDavid leads all scorers with five points (all assists) while teammate Leon Draisaitl has four points (three goals and one assist). Defenseman Nate Schmidt leads Florida with four points (all assists). 

The defending Stanley Cup champions have been formidable at home this season, going 27-12-2 during the regular season and 4-3 during the playoffs. As the series shifts to South Florida, the Panthers are -143 favorites at BetMGM Sportsbook with the Oilers +121 underdogs.

Let’s start our snapshot of what to watch and bet tonight on the ice.

Stanley Cup Game 3 best bets Monday

Oilers at Panthers, 8 p.m. ET (TNT)

Though the Stanley Cup Final has been high-scoring so far, the model loves Under 6.5 goals tonight and rates it as a rare “A” play. In last season’s Stanley Cup Final, these same two teams played four games at Amerant Bank Arena, and three of them went Under 6.5 goals. Meanwhile, the games in Edmonton were high-scoring with two of the three going Over 6.5 goals. The model’s 10,000 simulations say the teams average 5.7 goals in Game 3. The model also likes the Oilers on the puck line. The model gives Edmonton a 75% chance of covering, which is substantially different from the consensus odds implied probability of 67.2%. Meanwhile,  SportsLine hockey expert Scott Erskine likes Verhaeghe to find the back of the net at plus-money. He is tied for third on the Panthers with six goals this postseason. Erskine notes Verhaeghe had several good chances Friday, scored twice against the Oilers in last year’s Stanley Cup Final and tallied in both of Florida’s meetings with Edmonton this past regular season.

MLB best bets, games to watch Monday

Marlins at Pirates, 6:40 p.m. ET (FS1)

The Marlins’ Eury Pérez makes his long-awaited return to the mound when he faces the Pirates in the series opener in Pittsburgh. Once one of the most exciting pitching prospects in all of baseball, Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2024. The model projects the final score to be Marlins 4.4, Pirates 4.3 and likes Pittsburgh on the run line, saying the Pirates cover 68% of the time. The model also has a 5-star player prop from this game: Norby to go Over 0.5 total bases. According to the model, the Miami third baseman has gone Over his total bases market in four of his last five games when playing an opponent with a losing record and middle-third defense with an average of 1.8 total bases per game.

Mariners at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET (FS1)

• SportsLine model pick: Mariners +1.5 (-141, Caesars)
• SportsLine expert pick: Merrill Kelly Over 5.5 total pitcher strikeouts -105 (Prop Bet Guy, 26-17 in his last 43 MLB player prop picks)

Kelly (6-2, 3.43 ERA) is off to a solid start this season and hasn’t dropped a decision since early May. He has gone Over 5.5 strikeouts in each of his last six starts. In addition, Prop Bet Guy notes, “After a strikeout-averse start, the Mariners have come back down to Earth, and have the league’s fourth highest called plus swinging strike rate over the last month.” Meanwhile the model projects the final score to be Diamondbacks 4.9, Mariners 4.8 and likes Seattle to cover on the run line, saying the Mariners cover 67% of the time. That is drastically different from the consensus odds implied probability of 59.2%.

More MLB best bets

Looking ahead

NBA Finals Game 3: Thunder at Pacers (Wednesday)

• SportsLine model pick: Under 228.5 (-110 at various sportsbooks)
• Expert pick: Thunder -4 (Jason La Canfora, 112-81-1 in his last 194 NBA picks)

An NBA Finals series tied at 1-1 shifts to Indianapolis Wednesday when the Indiana Pacers host the Oklahoma City Thunder for Game 3 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Last week, the Pacers stunningly took Game 1 111-110 on Tyrese Haliburton‘s game-winner with 0.3 seconds remaining. The Thunder bounced back in Sunday’s Game 2 with a resounding 123-107 win. The model projects 223 points for Game 3 and says Under 228.5 hits 60.2% of the time. Meanwhile La Canfora likes a battle-tested Oklahoma City team to cover and notes the Thunder still haven’t played their best game. “They have built up massive late leads in both games in this series and the Thunder can exhale a bit after getting their first Finals win,” he says.